We all know that the VC investment scene is nothing like it was in 2021 and early 2022. With Q3 of 2024 behind us, we now know that fintech is still experiencing a funding downturn. In fact, both deal numbers and funding totals are down from Q2 of this year, with 179 fewer deals and $2.4 billion less in funding volume.
While the drop is sobering, however, there are a few bright lights in recent funding data that may signal the potential start of a positive turnaround. I took a look at CB Insights’ recent State of Venture Q3 ’24 Report, and here are my major takeaways.
Areas of micro growth
As mentioned previously, there are a few aspects of CB Insights’ recent data that offer signs of potential recovery:
Deal size
The drop in the average size is leveling off. So far in 2024, the average deal size is currently $12.7 million, and compared the 2023 average size of $13.2 million, deal size falls around $500,000 short. This is much smaller than the $3.2 million drop that took place from 2022 to 2023, and looks quite favorable when compared to the $11.6 million drop from 2021 to 2022.
Even better news is that the median deal size has increased for the first time since 2020. Thus far in 2024, the median deal size has increased by $1 million. This comes after the median deal size dropped by $700,000 from 2022 to 2023 and decreased by the same amount from 2021 to 2022.
Resilience in early-stage investment
The data regarding deal stage distribution shows that 71% of deals are still going to early-stage companies. This suggests that investors remain optimistic about long-term innovation in fintech, even if they are currently more conservative with growth-stage investments. Investors’ focus on early-stage companies could signal that they are planting the seeds for future growth, and may be anticipating a recovery in the fintech sector.
Areas of concern
There are, of course, still some less positive aspects of the Q3 investment data, notably, M&A activity and unicorn valuations.
M&A environment
The data indicates that interest in acquisitions is dropping. In the third quarter of this year, we saw 146 exits made via M&A. While this is an increase of six acquisitions when compared to the same quarter last year, it is down from both the first and second quarters of 2024, which were 161 and 159, respectively.
Increased M&A activity often suggests that the market is stabilizing, so the decrease suggests that investors are either still concerned about market conditions or are holding out for lower interest rates.
New unicorns
The number of new unicorns has dropped. In the third quarter of 2024, there were just two newly minted unicorns. This level is equal to what we saw in the first quarter of last year. The number of new unicorns has dropped from three in the second quarter of last year and from seven in the first quarter of this year.
Is this the bottom?
Looking at the data, it would appear that we are pretty close to the bottom of the fintech funding slump. And while I said that last year at about this time, this year, we have small signals to back it up. Specifically, the first increase in the median deal size since 2020 is quite encouraging and may indicate the potential for increased investor appetites.
Photo by Mikhail Nilov
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