SEC Delays Solana ETF Decision While SOL Holds Above $190 Despite 4.5% Recovery

Quick Take

• SOL trading at $193.65 (up 4.5% in 24h)
• SEC delays Solana ETF decision creates regulatory uncertainty
• Price testing above 7-day moving average at $190.31
• Bitcoin correlation strengthening as both assets recover from weekend lows

Market Events Driving Solana Price Movement

The most significant catalyst affecting SOL price this week remains the SEC’s decision on October 16th to delay approval of multiple Solana ETF applications, including proposals from Bitwise and 21Shares. The regulatory body cited needs for “additional time to evaluate issues related to market integrity and investor protection,” creating near-term uncertainty for institutional adoption prospects.

Despite this regulatory headwind, SOL price has shown resilience, finding support above the $183 level and staging today’s 4.48% recovery. The bounce coincides with broader crypto market strength, as Bitcoin trades higher and risk appetite returns to digital assets.

Offsetting some bearish sentiment, Solana’s ecosystem continues expanding with two notable developments. The network’s partnership with Wavebridge to launch a KRW-backed stablecoin signals growing Asian market penetration, while data showing Solana DEXs capturing 50% of 2025’s trading volume underscores the platform’s retail adoption momentum. These fundamentals provide underlying support despite regulatory uncertainty.

SOL Technical Analysis: Testing Key Moving Average Confluence

Price Action Context

SOL price currently trades just above its 7-day simple moving average at $190.31, marking a critical technical juncture. The token remains below its 20-day ($207.61) and 50-day ($214.95) moving averages, indicating the broader downtrend from recent highs near $247 remains intact. However, the decisive break above the 200-day moving average at $174.98 suggests underlying bullish structure persists.

Today’s $616 million trading volume on Binance spot represents elevated activity, indicating institutional and retail interest at these levels. The correlation with Bitcoin has strengthened, with both assets showing similar intraday patterns as macro risk sentiment improves.

Key Technical Indicators

The daily RSI at 44.78 sits in neutral territory, providing room for upward momentum without reaching overbought conditions. More concerning for bulls, the MACD histogram at -1.8167 continues signaling bearish momentum, though the gap between MACD (-8.16) and signal line (-6.35) is narrowing.

Solana’s position within Bollinger Bands shows the token trading at 32% of the band width, suggesting potential for expansion in either direction. The daily ATR of $14.89 indicates elevated volatility, requiring careful position sizing for traders.

Critical Price Levels for Solana Traders

Immediate Levels (24-48 hours)

• Resistance: $207.61 (20-day moving average and previous support turned resistance)
• Support: $183.19 (24-hour low and previous consolidation zone)

Breakout/Breakdown Scenarios

A decisive break below $183 support could trigger selling toward the stronger support zone at $168.79, aligning with Bollinger Band lower boundary. Conversely, reclaiming the 20-day moving average at $207.61 would signal potential for testing immediate resistance at $237.79.

SOL Correlation Analysis

Bitcoin:** SOL price is following Bitcoin’s lead more closely than in recent weeks, with both assets showing similar recovery patterns from weekend lows. This correlation typically strengthens during uncertain market conditions.

Traditional markets:** With Bitcoin and SOL both recovering, the correlation to traditional risk assets like the S&P 500 appears positive, though crypto remains the primary driver.

Sector peers:** Solana technical analysis shows the token outperforming several Layer 1 competitors on a relative basis, supported by strong DEX volume metrics.

Trading Outlook: Solana Near-Term Prospects

Bullish Case

A sustained break above $207.61 resistance could trigger momentum buying toward $237.79, particularly if Bitcoin maintains strength above key levels. Strong DEX volume and ecosystem growth provide fundamental backing for any technical breakout.

Bearish Case

ETF rejection concerns and failure to hold $183 support could accelerate selling toward $168.79. MACD bearish divergence suggests caution for aggressive long positions at current levels.

Risk Management

Conservative traders should consider stops below $180 for long positions, while swing traders might wait for clear 20-day moving average reclaim before adding exposure. Given the $14.89 daily ATR, position sizing should account for potential 7-8% daily moves.

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